The 538 running average of the generic ballot puts Democrats at 46% to Republicans 45%. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Biden. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. The average methodology is summarized below the table. Poll of the week. S. RealClearPolitics - 2024 Generic Congressional Vote. Between the House (435 races), Senate (35) and gubernatorial races (36), we issued forecasts in a total of 506 elections. Download the data. 804: A: July 14-25. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Virginia Commonwealth University L. Murray. Ahead of the U. Split Ticket’s calculations showed an R+1. 3:16. Six pollsters 1 have released generic ballot polls both before and after the Dobbs decision. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 6 hours ago · A court ruled last week that previous spending violated constitutional limits on deficits, forcing Scholz’s government to put off a final vote on next year’s spending plan. Download the data. Chris Sununu (R) , Larry Hogan (R) , Mike Pompeo (R) By Martín González Gómez and Maggie Astor. 7. B/C. WPA Intelligence. There’s been huge variation from survey to survey on the generic. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. S. Download. Download the data. Trump. The reality of the generic ballot is that Democrats generally need to be ahead by a few points to have a status-quo election. Split Ticket’s calculations showed an R+1. Biden vs. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Democrats enjoyed 42 percent support in the congressional generic ballot on January 23, compared to 43. Download the data. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 2 percentage points (45. The graph below shows how the FiveThirtyEight generic-ballot polling average 2 shifted in the last 90 days of the 2006, 2010, 2014 and 2018 midterms. In some ways, splits on all these indicators probably shouldn’t be a surprise. Download the data. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Download the data. Where that is not applicable, the most recent 2024 presidential election poll is used. 42. Affiliated with AAPOR/Roper. Yes, as you might recall, generic-ballot polls. Classic. Download the data. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 3. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 8. 32. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Republicans took the lead in the generic congressional ballot on July 6, and by Labor Day weekend they had a clear 5-point lead. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Download. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Download the data. RCP Poll Average. 1 Oct. Download the data. Download the data. Democrats (D) +6. The generic ballot — which asks respondents whether they’ll vote for the Republican or the Democrat in their congressional district — informs the FiveThirtyEight Senate models in a fashion. 748. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party. CNN: D 51%, R 42% (D+9) Democrats won a net of 40 seats. 48. Download. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Updating average for each Republican candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. . In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, 2 Republicans currently lead by 2. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Trump. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. The next step after Colorado's high court would be the. 2. Support for both parties has risen since January 20. Republicans (R) +2. Senate, U. 42%. Generic ballot polling average. As you can see, the president’s party lost. S. If one candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, they will win the election outright. As a result of Census apportionment, some states have a different number of electoral votes in 2024. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. U. No. And overall, the latest average from 538 gives the Republicans a very narrow . 508 LV. Download the data. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 2% Republican 45. The faux Democratic generic ballot lead in June, July, and August of 2014 broke hard toward Republicans the minute September hit and voters began paying attention again. Joe Biden Approval. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Biden Siena Biden 46, Trump 36 Biden +10 New York: Trump vs. January 1, 2024 . Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. 0. But as of this week, after tying. Download. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Ron DeSantis’s 538 polling average in the 2024 Republican Presidential Primary is. Download the data. Based on the current generic ballot polling, Republicans are leading by about two points right now, and Crystal Ball predicts a 19-seat loss in the House—taking it from a five-member Democratic. Specifically, we looked at what would happen if you made a forecast based solely on the partisan lean of a state or district, plus generic-ballot results. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 154 RV. 4% Democrat. 9 percentage points (44. With election day approaching, two gubernatorial elections remain to be held before the 2024 general election. Select a state name to see its presidential voting history. 19, 2020. 2024 Republican Debates. Download the data. The last key point is that the generic ballot can be somewhat misleading when it comes to the eventual outcomes — because history shows Democrats need to be leading on that measure to keep their. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Listen. 43. For the 18 midterm elections that have taken place since 1946, I compared the final generic-ballot polling of the cycle by Gallup or the final polling average from RealClearPoliticsGallup surveys. All 2020 Generic Congressional Vote Polling Data. 5 points over the last 21 days of the campaign. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Incumbent President Joe Biden, a member of the Democratic Party, is running for re-election. Democrats +3. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 0 percentage points (44. Specifically, the generic-ballot polling average the previous September overestimates the president’s party’s vote margin by an average of 3. 1 Nov. There are 34 seats up in 2024 - including a special election in Nebraska - of which 23 are held by Democrats or Independents. 21, 2023 leader Trump Trump 60. Download. Emerson. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. For Ballotpedia's presidential approval, congressional approval, direction of the country, and generic congressional ballot polling results, we take an average of the most recent polls (from the last 30 days, with some exceptions for major news events) on one or more of these topics conducted by the. Trump +46. To improve accuracy, the polling average gives more weight to polls: 1. The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Obama’s net approval rating was -11 points, but Democrats actually led in generic-ballot polling by 2 points. Download the data. S. 68%. 1 percent of Americans approve of the job Biden is doing as president, while 52. voters to the generic Democrat candidate’s 41 percent, a three. Someone suggested that the difference is in how the question is asked. 2 All six of those polling firms have shown a shift toward Democrats. Nov. Download. Canada is looking to restore ties with President Nicolás Maduro ’s socialist government in Venezuela, falling in line with other. Download the data. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. While it’s definitely too early to hang your hat on any 2024 general-election polls, a Selzer & Co. Design and. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. They Didn’t Start Voting Differently From Men Until 1980. Upset wins are surprising but not impossible. 2. 538 uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, economics, and American society. July 14-25. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. The Second GOP Debate Could Be Smaller, With Or Without Trump Sep 14, 2023; 2024 Election. Specifically, we looked at what would happen if you made a forecast based solely on the partisan lean of a state or district, plus generic-ballot results. Keep it simple, please — give me the best forecast you can based on what local and national polls say. The result was a. Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 849 registered voters in the United States from July 5-7, 2022. Now, for your. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Pappas UNH Pappas 50, Leavitt 49 Pappas +1 New Hampshire 2nd District - Burns vs. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 1d. Download the data. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. 1/20 - 1/21. A 9-point loss in the House popular vote would translate into a projected 65-seat loss. Andy Beshear is a Democratic Party candidate for office. 0 percent to 42. 42. For one, Democrats are outpacing President Joe Biden’s abysmal approval ratings in generic ballots: Slightly more than 43 percent of voters say that, if the election were held today, they would. Election 2024 Polls; Generic Congressional Ballot; Senate Polls; State of the Union Polls; RCP Election 2024. 3, 2020. Find the latest poll numbers from CNN here. Biden. Analysis of the FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos tracking poll suggests that following the Dobbs decision, a segment of Biden’s 2020 base who were previously uninvested in the midterms now say they are likely to vote for a Democratic candidate. But still, if we look at an average of generic ballot polls from 1996 to 2020 — covering seven presidential elections and six midterms — the polls were only off by 2. 2014 Generic Congressional Vote. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. 7-10. Download. 3 points, according to. FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. Earlier this month in Louisiana, State Attorney General Jeff Landry won the jungle primary with a bare majority of votes, avoiding a November runoff he almost certainly would have won. Download. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. House and make a. Download the data. Education Reform Now Advocacy is a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. ESTIMATE. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 0 10 20 30 40 50% Election Day Nov. Download. 41%. 7-point lead on Election Day, and they won the national House popular vote by 8. Biden Harvard-Harris Trump 53, Biden 47 Trump +6 General Election: Trump vs. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Colorado officials have urged a final decision by Jan. The generic congressional vote question does not. Download the data. More in 2024 Election. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Sep. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major. Between the House (435 races), Senate (35) and gubernatorial races (36), we issued forecasts in a total of 506 elections. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. This 3-part map lets you view the current composition of the U. 5 GOP (R) +2. , also rated as an A+ pollster by FiveThirtyEight, had Democrats ahead by only 2 percentage points. 13 to Sept. In testing this on 2018 and 2020 races. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 6 percent). Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. The data point for 2014 reflects this year’s generic congressional ballot, a poll-based projection of the national House vote. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 4 percentage point over-prediction of Democratic strength. Latest 2024 Polls; Republican Nomination; GOP Betting Odds; Democratic Nomination; Dem. The polling tracker lets you do a lot with our huge database of polls, but for some polling nerds, it isn’t enough. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Download the data. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. How this works: FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each polling organization’s polls along with its methodology. S. There’s been huge variation from survey to survey on the generic. and the generic ballot test, in particular. 3 percentage points (48. Jun. Their surveys with Siena College during. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party. CNN: D 51%, R 42% (D+9) Democrats won a net of 40 seats. In 2019, about 39 percent of Virginia’s voting-eligible population cast a ballot, well below the turnout rate in the 2020 presidential (72 percent), 2021 gubernatorial (52 percent) and 2022. 6 points. The national surveys looking at the generic congressional ballot had Republicans ahead by about 1. Democrats. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election. The net result is the average 2. The lead for a Republican candidate has nearly doubled since last week on the generic congressional ballot, according to Rasmussen Reports’ weekly poll released Friday. The House polls are consistent with the generic ballot results. S. 49. Trump maintains a 10-point lead among White voters, while trailing Biden. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 42. 6%, Biden at 45% — in the RCP polling average. The 2018 midterm elections are a. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. S. 6 points. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 43. Democrats Republicans; Likely: Leans: Toss up: Likely: Leans: Toss up: Date State Prev ious Status New Status Dems Toss Ups GOP Pick-Up Range Avg Gain Average Gain; 11/6: NY19 NY19: Leans GOPMarch 28-April 5. When the dust settled, it was a solid night. For instance, if Democrats have gained a net of 5 percentage points on the generic ballot since a certain district was polled, the model will adjust the poll upward toward the Democratic candidate. Bluegrass Freedom Action (PAC) is a partisan sponsor for the Republican Party. Candidate is an incumbent. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Trump and three generic third-party candidates. Krishna Rao, president of the Rice Exporters Association,. When Kansas voters earlier this month rejected a ballot initiative that would have made it easier for the state legislature to restrict or ban abortion, it was only the. Download. 49. 42. America's Voice is a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party. Download. 2024 Generic Congressional Vote: CNN: Republicans 48, Democrats 47: Republicans +1: 2024 Generic Congressional Vote: Economist/YouGov: Republicans 42, Democrats 43: Democrats +1: Congressional Job. On average, across those 21 election cycles, our generic-ballot polling average on Election Day missed the House popular vote by only 3. Moore Information. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Interestingly, the Economist model has a very similar % chance for control as 538 but projects popular vote at R+0. 2024 Election. Earliest day for independent candidates to circulate and file nominating petitions. Biden. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. and across different years. Download the data. Independent voters include respondents who. The Senate Is Losing One Of Its Few Remaining Moderate Republicans Sep 13, 2023; 2024 Election. Download the data. In fact, in August of 2014, it. Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. That figure is slightly less than the apparent R+2. RealClearPolitics - President Biden Job Approval. RCP Poll Average. Download. Democratic Gov. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Download. RCP Poll Average. RCP Poll Average. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. The U. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Therefore, we also make our data available for download so you can play with. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. On average, Democrats trailed by. November 22, 2023, 5:06 PM. A week ago, Democrats led Republicans. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 2014 Generic Congressional Vote. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Republicans (R) +2. 508: LV: Nov. At least 15 congressional races already feature a challenger who faced the current incumbent on the general election ballot in 2022. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Expected. Democrats (D) +6. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Download the data. 6 percent). Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Updating average for each Republican candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. 182. Democrats will likely lose West Virginia's Senate seat in 2024. Republicans (R) +2. 6 attack on the Capitol off the ballot in 2024. 8, 2022 leader Kelly Kelly +1. And the generic ballot. Kyle Rivas / Getty Images. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. ”. Climate Power is a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party. Andy Beshear won reelection in Kentucky. Read moreThe Trump team celebrated the Colorado judge's rejection of CREW's challenge to keep Trump off the GOP ballot in 2024 by maintaining that the efforts to invoke Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Ashcroft’s original description of the proposed abortion amendments, which could go on the ballot in 2024 if supporters gather enough voter signatures, would have asked voters whether they want. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Democracy Corps is a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. 11-13. 48. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. By Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Meredith Conroy. 3%. Includes special elections that took place on Nov. 3-5. America's Voice is a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. The average from FiveThirtyEight looks at polls from Morning. No other method of calculating the generic ballot leader shall be relevant, unless FiveThirtyEight does not provide this displayed lead at the End Date, in which case the lead will be calculated by subtracting the number displayed on the graph for May 4 for "Republicans" from the number displayed for "Democrats," or vice versa depending on.